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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd