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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest shock.

However the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still